GDP-Linked Bond

This is an article from the Blog of Bank of England staffs. At the present time, many are talking about GDP-linked bond as a policy response to COVID-19 pandemic. The idea was introduced by Shiller in the 1990s. It also closely related to inflation-linked bonds. There is also several relevant links explaining the analysis, desirability and feasibility of GDP-linked bond.

https://voxeu.org/article/benefits-gdp-indexed-bonds

Unemployment in Malaysia

An article in Tinta Minda, BERNAMA on the current unemployment status in Malaysia post-COVID. According to the article, unemployment is now at the highest rate in 34 years, at 5 percent. Hopefully, the Economic Recovery Plan will spur faster economic growth.

Malaysia's Unemployment Rate

Youth Unemployment Rate

Sukuk and Stimulus Deficit

Finally,  I come across an article on Sukuk written by Bashar Al-Natoor in Al Arabiya. The article talks about the roles of Sukuk in helping economic recovery. What shape would Sukuk-based economic recovery be? Good point to ponder. At the time of low interest rate environment, Sukuk is the ready and available tool to suit the situation. Hope to have many more articles this in the future. Sukuk all the way up to 2021.

Happy Sunday Reading. 

See any Shape?

Negative Interest Rate Adoption.

GDP-Linked Sukuk

A friend alerted me on this article published by the Edge Weekly, June 24 written by Hazik Mohamed. The article sync with Sukuk PRIHATIN I posted yesterday.

Happy to see the news on Sukuk. Let's us subscribe to the retail Sukuk PRIHATIN and contributes to the economic recovery. Below is 2.23 minutes video on Sukuk Prihatin. 

Dasar Fiskal Kerajaan

Recent article (in Bahasa Melayu) on the fiscal and monetary stance of the government on road to recovery post COVID-19. There are many economic terms used. I do hope the public digest the information and act accordingly.

It is not easy to manage the fiscal space, debt, deficit and low interest rate environment. Health crisis coupled with economic crisis. Unemployment and low economic growth. Falling commodity prices. Oil crisis. Ringgit continues falling.

On the positive note, growth in 2021 is projected at 7.5%. Let us work together to achieve that.

Excerpted from IMF, Feb. 2020

file:///Users/nursilahahmad/Downloads/1MYSEA2020001.pdf

Sukuk PRIHATIN

Retail Sukuk RM500 million will be issued 3Q:2020. It is a 'war bond like.' The purpose is to help selected impacted sectors post-COVID by providing the social safety net. It is part of the RM35 billion Economic Recovery Plan (ERP) announced by the Prime Minister on June 7, 2020. According to the Finance Minister, the Sukuk Prihatin rate of return might be lower than MGS (Malaysian Government Seccurities). I think this is a good step in Sukuk literacy education to the general public. The Sukuk would be offered to the public, individuals (retail) and corporations. Let's be patriotic.

The US, Canada, Germany and UK issued similar instruments to revive their economy. In Asia, Malaysia is the first country to issue the corona bond/pandemic bond. I do hope the implementation process would ensure the targeted groups receive the benefits as intended. 

Can't wait to see the response.

Sukuk Prihatin RM500 million. 

Sakinah the Series - Case Study

I have written four Teaching Case Studies. Three of them are on Sukuk. The latest one is on Gig Economy.

The decision-maker in every case is the fictional character of Sakinah. She works at Cagamas Berhad as a Chief Financial Officer (CFO). Cagamas's office is at Mid-Valley, Kuala Lumpur. Now, I have 'Sakinah the Series 4.'

Sakinah the Series 1: Seeking Sukuk

• Just background information on Sukuk.

Sakinah the Series 2: Should Sukuk Get a Hair Cut

• Deals with the defaulted Sukuk post-2008 global crisis.

Sakinah the Series 3: Brexit as the Game Changer for Sukuk

• Examines the impact of Brexit on Sukuk, as London  is the Islamic finance hub for Euro-Zone

Sakinah the Series 4: COVID-19: A Fork in the Road for Gig Workers.

• Look at the possibility of Gig economy to be the new engine of growth post-COVID

Sakinah the Series 5 coming soon. It would be on Economic Recovery Plan post-COVID.

Source: Internet

Khnifer's Writing on Sukuk.

Post-COVID Economic Recovery in Europe

The exogenous shock that hit the economy is took everyone by surprise. As countries slowly navigate the recovery process post-COVID, the most important question is what is the economic recovery tools. 

Looking at Europe, the article by Douglas A. Rediker and Giovanna De Maio in Brookings sum it up  'Order from Chaos.' Below is the last paragraph from the article:

"What seems on its face to be a dispute over financing instruments and fiscal advantages is actually a far deeper reflection on the costs and benefits of EU or euro area membership itself, and ultimately the future of European integration."

On another note, the USA Congress allocated about 15% of GDP to COVID-19, with more coming. The 2% limit of the ESM facility pale in comparison.

 3 Important Regions: China, USA & Europe. Where is OIC?

The Shape of Economic Recovery Post COVID-19

U, W, Z, L or Nike-swoosh shape for economic recovery after the pandemic COVID-19?

We have to wait and see. Analysts suggest it would be deep, with a short memory of the economic players. There is high probability that it will rebound, so the economic policies need to tackle the situation. Learn the Economic Recovery Curve.

Interesting Article on Fiscal Policy During Pandemic by Miguel Faria e Castro here. 

This is Real. It is not a meme.

Economic Recovery Post COVID-19

It is time to think of how the economy is going to get back on its feet after the world is grappling with the pandemic. For almost six months, we have been talking about the virus, social protection, job losses and lockdown.

Now that the crisis is under control, at least in our country, the number of cases is single digit for many days in June, it is time to start focusing on the future.

An article here that covers what should be done. I like the creative economy part. Hope the author is referring to Gig economy. The other one is blue economy. Digital economy, medical supply, maritime logistic are a few areas that we have advantage. The main focus, according to the article, is to provide quality jobs to the people. 

If we read/write one article per day on economic recovery process post COVID-19, we will be able to keep the economy going a lot faster. 

Economic Recovery. L, U, V or W or swoosh-shaped?

Explaining the Shape. 1.42 minutes.

Gig Economy Comes of Age

China and technological advancement. We can read in the news all sort of innovation they come-up with during COVID-19 crisis. The latest is what they call as "Exoskeleton" - latest innovation by the apps Ele.me platform - one of China’s biggest food delivery platforms (see picture). Some people are against it. Most people love it. The article is here. Bottom line? Be more efficient, cut business cost.

Did you see how creative they are? 

Ele.me = Element. Exoskeleton = outside, external.

Examples of animals with exoskeletons include insects such as grasshoppers and cockroaches, and crustaceans such as crabs and lobsters, as well as the shells of certain sponges and the various groups of shelled molluscs, including those of snails, clams, tusk shells, chitons and nautilus.I have always been fascinated by the names of their multinational companies. TenCent. AliBaba. Ant Financial. One day, I am going to do research on how they arrive at the names.

Exoskeleton Grasshopper patiently shed its skin. More Outstanding Pictures by the Photographer here.

Exoskeleton Food Delivery in China. The Real Iron Man. Wow!

Bella Ciao and Padi

Found this short article explaining the Bella Ciao phenomena. For first timer like me, the writing gives a short close-up on the root of the song. How, from early 1900 it was the voice of paddy farmers in Italy, later change into universal anthem of resistance. During COVID-19 crisis, the song swept across Europe, uniting younger generations. Hope they take time to take a peek in history.

The word "paddy" is derived from the Malay word padi, meaning "rice plant". Paddy is the staple food of the majority of the world population. It is the second major crop in the world. If you want to have an experience of paddy planting, visit Kedah, the northern part of Malaysia, the Rice Bowl of our country. I really hope Malaysia modernize the paddy planting system. China has been studying hybrid rice for almost 10 years now. 

By the way, the 4th Season of Money Heist Drama Series premiered April 3, 2020. Stay Safe During Isolation.

Bangau di Sawah. For beautiful pictures, visit this blog.

Disrupted Employment in China

I was looking for the Gig economy legislation in China to see what they have done post COVID-19. Come across this article, which I am currently reading. 

If you have any suggestion on the issue, please let me know.

2018 was the peak.

Data excluded China online platform. What Say You?

Gig Workers and Social Protection

Gig workers have unique position in the economic crisis due to COVID-19. Why? Because some parts of the gig economy, delivery of food, groceries, and other goods by e-commerce companies, have been designated as essential services across economies. A short article by Ambika Tandon here.

The freelancers often live gig-to-gig and rely on bringing people together for their livelihoods. Example of gig jobs are: artists, managers, production crew, technical workers, venue operators and workers, festival operators, booking, talent and ticketing agencies, marketing and promotions companies, and a broad range of other related businesses and sole traders.

What would be your government crisis responses?

Singapore. Pay workers to upskill themselves.

On COVID-19 well-being. China is leading. 

Recovery Road Map for China post COVID-19

Foot traffics. A cycle of revenge spendings. Quote from the article below:

"As President Lincoln said in a time of great adversity: ‘The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew."'

Kebiasaan baharu. Norma baharu.

A Picture is Words in Poetry. Somebody said this.

PhD dan Perangkap Identiti

Another interesting perspective on PhD journey and what you should do afterwards in Tinta Minda.
Refer the article (in Malay) written by Dr Nor Tutiaini Ab Wahid, tutor and Education Consultant.

I would like to quote one Nigerian Lady on doing PhD:
"Remember, the major factor in your success is you."

Pic. Obtained my PhD in 2009.

Pic. Planning on Empty Spaces.

Gig Economy , Underemployment and Malaysia

A good article in MalaysiaKini  (in Bahasa) summarising gig economy situation in Malaysia, written by Ahmad Fadhi Shaari in Oct. 2019. A quick snapshot of 2 minutes reading here.

Pic. And the Number is Growing

Jobbatical is the efficient, reliable immigration partner for hyper-growth startups and global companies.

Conceptualizing Gig Economy

This article provides a conceptual design of gig workers problem in the United States. I haven't finished reading the entire article yet. It looks promising and quite recent - published in May 2020. 

Will update comments later. 

Pic. The Conceptual Design by the authors of the article.

Pic. The Situation in the EU and USA.

article

Gig Economy in Europe

Inforgraphic on Gig Economy in Europe during April 2020 here.

Will update later.

Pic. Find anything interesting?

Meteor, Poisson Process and Statistics

How do you explain Poisson Distribution?

Try using meteor as an example, as shown by this article.

Pic. Meteor shower.

Pic. Predicting Asteroid Impact with Poisson Process. 

Malaysia's Economic Recovery by End 2020

According to the World Bank, Malaysia will start the recovery process by the end of 2020.

The 2020 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to a negative 0.1%, due to COVID-19 outbreak. I do think the recovery would be in between V and U-shaped. So, it is ViU. The i is for Sukuk PRIHATIN.

Pic. A Z-shaped recovery.

Pic. Latest from WSJ Article. Take your pick.

3 Minutes Summary of Crucial Conversations

Come across this Blog while searching for information on gig economy. 

A quick read, but beneficial nonetheless. If you prefer video, it will take 6-minutes of your time.

Or you can do both. 

I CnP the quotes below.

Top 10 Quotes from Crucial Conversations

1. “A word fitly spoken is like apples of gold in baskets of silver.”
2. “An apology is a statement that sincerely expresses your sorrow for your role in causing—or at least not preventing—pain or difficulty to others.”
3. “As much as others may need to change, or we may want them to change, the only person we can continually inspire, prod, and shape—with any degree of success—is the person in the mirror.”
4. “At the core of every successful conversation lies the free flow of relevant information.”
5. “Goals without deadlines aren’t goals; they’re merely directions.”
6. “Instead of getting hooked and fighting back, break the cycle. See their aggressive behavior for what it is – a sign of violated safety – then step out of the conversation, build safety, and step back into the content.”
7. “It’s the most talented, not the least talented, who are continually trying to improve their dialogue skills. As is often the case, the rich get richer.”
8. “One of the best ways to persuade others is with your ears—by listening to them.”
9. “Practice doesn’t make perfect; perfect practice makes perfect.”
10. “Remember, to know and not to do is really not to know.”

Pic. The Book. 3 million copies sold.

Pic. Summary

Pandemic Bond Revisited

A few post earlier, I wrote on pandemic bond due to COVID-19. Now that the focus is on the economic recovery, we have to evaluate the effectiveness of issuing bond to keep the engine of economy running. The first pandemik bond was created in 2016 due to Ebola crisis in West Africa in 2016. The bond was launched in 2017. It was hailed as a great innovation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic bond revealed its weaknesses. But let us learn the lesson and improve. Especially so in the case of Sukuk PRIHATIN. We need to balance between raising financial assistance and preparing for the future. Prevent debt deluge. Another article discussing the lessons from COVID-19 bond and the fine-tuning necessary since the outbreak. I am in the process of writing  a case study on Sukuk PRIHATIN and COVID-19. This article helps a lot.

On World Bank's failing to rapidly mobilise pandemic emergency fund facility (PEF) assistance here. 

Pic. The Scenario.

Pic. Pandemic Bond

Pic. Fixing Pandemic Bond. Where is Riyal?

Wanita dan Pengurusan Kewangan Pasca COVID-19

Analogi menarik dari Prof. Madya Dr. Aisyah Abdul Rahman berkaitan wanita dan pengurusan kewangan di Tinta Minda.

"Ibarat perumpamaan, walaupun seluruh dunia mengalami ribut taufan di lautan yang sama, namun masing-masing mempunyai spesifikasi kapal yang berbeza. Ada yang besar, gah dan utuh. Ada yang sederhana kukuh, manakala ada ibarat rakit buluh ataupun secebis pelepah kelapa yang pada bila-bila masa sahaja mungkin ditelan ombak.

Analogi ini menggambarkan bahawa pandemik COVID-19 memberikan impak ekonomi yang berbeza kepada kita semua."

Ada juga Inforgrafik terkini dari Katadata untuk sekilas pandang. 

Pic.  COVID-19 is rising fast. Hopefully it will end soon.

Pic. Katadata, April 2020.

Sukuk PRIHATIN worth RM500 million in 3Q2020

I am glad the government has finally issued Sukuk PRIHATIN worth RM500 million as part of recovery packages in dealing with COVID-19 pandemic. In Europe, there was a talk of pandemic bond since day one. A little late in issuing the bond, it is still a morale boost for Islamic finance. Moreover, the short term economic recovery plan (ERP) are sustainable and green - fund SME businesses especially for women, improvement of school broadband facilities in rural areas, as well as research grants for infectious disease. It echoes the global sentiments regarding the crisis in providing help in three most important areas: food, medicine and safety. 

There is also provision for gig workers under the ERP with 40 initiatives. Job security, re-skilling and easing cash flow for business are among them. The policies will support the growth of gig economy and welfare of gig workers. A quick summary here.

You can find pandemic bond and gig economy articles on my previous posts. 

 Pic. Malaysia. The Twin Tower.

Book on Gig Economy

I am currently researching on Gig Economy. Looking at its potential to be the new engine of growth. There is a chapter on Gig Economy in the Book 'Issues for Debate in American Public Policy.' This book, published in 2018, is the 21st edition. Interesting debates. The policy responses are equally interesting. A good read. I have to catch up on the previous 20 Books. 😀

Pic. Some of the Books.

Seminar Penerbitan USIM Writers' Pool

If you are interested to write an award winning book, you can watch the video below (30 minutes).

Happy writing.

Knowledge Workers and Gig Economy

Most recent publication from Harvard Business Review on the possibility of  knowledge workers entering gig economy. At this point in time, it seems unlikely due to different geographical locations, different culture and different tax policy scheme and different regulations among countries involved. However, the article does provide a flowchart on estimating the future of knowledge workers entering into gig economy. You can read the article here.

Pic. Knowledge Workers as Gig Economy Workforce

Pic. Venn Diagram

Pic. Knowledge Workers. Critical Thinking is A Must

Netflix as the Game Changer for Cable Television

I was looking for some other materials when I stumble upon Netflix and its visionary goals.  Netflix's Million Dollar Challenge started in 2006. The mission is as below: 

"Make the company's recommendation engine 10% more accurate -- or die coding...And while a million dollars created attention, it was the data set -- over 100 million ratings of 17,770 movies from 480,189 customers -- that had number-crunching nuts salivating. There was nothing like it at the time. There hasn't been anything quite like it since."

Now, Netflix is so successful among the Millennial. I believe the Millenial should learn coding.

You can read the full story on the Netflix Challenge here. 

Note: There is a movie titled 'Game Changers' streaming in Netflix in 2018. Synopsis: 'A quest to find the optimal diet for human performance and health.' The movie is produced by Jackie Chan, Arnold Schwarzenegger and James Cameron. 

Pic. Simple yet powerful. A Business Leader.