Malaysia's Trade Performance, 2020

Malaysia's external trade performed fairly well in 2020 despite the pandemic. May 2021 be better.

Image from the Star.

WolfWalkers - Apple TV

The trailer below. How long do you think it takes to produce this 2.03 minutes trailer? Amazing skills and creativity.

Graphic Designs Trend 2021 Part 1

Watch the video below (14.29 minutes). I especially like the creative illustration from China. 

Happy watching. Stay Safe.

Appy Pie AppMkr

Now you can create you own app for free using Appy Pie. Thanks to the Seminar I have attended. Let us learn a new skill today.

https://www.appypie.com/how-to-create-an-app#Step8

Image from the Internet.

Literasi Kewangan Bumiputera

Financial literacy is important nowadays, more so in the digital era. The article below (in Malay language) looks at the ASNB.

https://www.bernama.com/bm/tintaminda/news.php?id=1923530#abc

Image: Tinta Minda.

Pros and Cons of Digital Currency

Excerpt:

"Central bank digital currencies

Pros

• Address decline in use of cash, likely to accelerate amidst Covid-19 – help central banks maintain control over currency’s circulation and support financial inclusion
• Challenge threat posed by cryptocurrency or other digital coins launched by private companies like Facebook’s Libra
• Fast, efficient method of payment and exchange

Cons

• Potential competition between central banks and commercial banks for consumer deposits, interest and lending
• Questions over CBDC requiring central bank to undertake KYC/AML etc and other operational burdens usually handled by commercial banks
• Necessary tradeoffs in technological infrastructure between security and efficiency"

https://www.finextra.com/the-long-read/37/the-pros-and-cons-of-cbdcs

Image: FinExtra

Yuan is on Rebound Mode

USD-Yuan Currency War? Will it lead to currency crisis?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinese-yuan-soars-to-5-month-high-ahead-of-us-china-trade-deal-signing-2020-01-13

Image from TifPost

The USD is falling - For the Right Reasons

 Deteriorating trade balance and falling US oil output are among the reasons.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-dollar-is-falling-for-the-right-reasons-and-thats-good-news-for-stocks-11609874436

Urban Climate Gamification

Try the Game. MDG Game on Poverty is a good introduction of the concept. The ECB's Economia is another good try.

https://games4sustainability.org/gamepedia/urbanclimatearchitect/

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Making an Epic Teaser

 If you are planning to produce a short teaser for your project, watch the 15-minutes video below. Use 'deep voice.'

Video-copilot - http://www.videocopilot.net/

China is the Only Major Economy Reporting Positive Growth in 2020

Excerpt:

"The pandemic "dealt a much larger blow to the U.S. economy than to China's economy," the Nomura report said. "Time will tell, but in our view there is a high likelihood that 2026 will be the milestone at which China re-emerges as the world's largest economy."

https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/chinas-2020-gdp-world-no-1-economy-us/

The Dynamics of Change

Covid-19. Changes. People.

Ohitorisama

“Ohitorisama” refers to people living and doing things alone and “herbivore men” refers to men who have no interest in getting married or finding a girlfriend. In fact, Japan's “ohitorisama” market is much bigger than Korea's... This led to the development of the third phase of Japan's ohitorisama culture boom, - Internet.

The article below (in Malay, from Tinta Minda) talks about how the concept of 'Ohitorisama' helps Japanese survive Covid-19. The Japanese art of doing it alone. Alone together.  Interesting point of view.

https://www.bernama.com/bm/tintaminda/news.php?id=1918129

Image: AP

Is Digital Money Really Money?

Latest publication from the IMF Blog. Do you think digital money is money? 

https://blogs.imf.org/2021/01/14/legally-speaking-is-digital-money-really-money/

Pulun

A Book by Datuk Dr. Mohd Daud Bakar.

Wealth Effects and Macroeconomic Dynamics

An article written by Cooper and Dynan (2014). Excerpt:

"...a great deal of empirical research over the last 25 years has focused on the so‐called wealth effects – the impact of changes in wealth on household consumption and the overall macroeconomy. Such studies have used different types of data and frameworks to examine the relationship between wealth and spending, including macroeconomic time series, cross‐country comparisons, within‐country regional comparisons, household survey results, and credit bureau records. The existing literature also considers how the wealth effects vary across countries. Overall, the research has yielded some important findings about the nature of household wealth effects, but consensus has yet to be reached on many important issues."

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joes.12090

Image: Sage Publications - Smartonomics

Stock Market Wealth and Consumption

Article by James Poterba, 2000 published in Journal of Economic Perspectives. Complimentary of JSTOR.

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.14.2.99

Image: Slide Share.

Image: Cartoon Stock

Economic Performance of Selected Sukuk Issuing Countries

The study investigates whether consumption causes growth or the consequences of growth in 11 sukuk issuing OIC countries.

http://www.myaidconference.com/uploads/6/2/6/7/62670651/ijcomah_vol_1_issue_2_dec_2020.pdf

Malaysia's New Poverty Line Income

The new PLI (Poverty Line Income) is RM2,208.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/07/10/statistics-dept-malaysias-new-poverty-line-income-is-rm2208-over-400k-house/1883285

Good and Services Inflation

The two types of inflation. Divergence or convergence?

https://umexpert.um.edu.my/public_view.php?type=publication&row=OTYyOTA%3D

Is Sukuk Market Efficient?

The Case of Malaysia.

https://jmifr.usim.edu.my/index.php/jmifr/article/view/292/204

Image Credit to Reader

Flexible Exchange Rates - 50 Years Later

An article by Maurice Obstfeld on exchange rates. July 2020.

https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/harry-johnsons-case-flexible-exchange-rates-50-years-later

Image Credit to Policonomics

Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policy Autonomy

 Obstfeld latest work on exchange rate regimes.

https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/exchange-rate-regimes-can-give-nations-varying-levels-autonomy-over-monetary

Dispute Resolution in Sukuk Restructuring

Restucturing Process in Defaulted Sukuk.

https://www.ijicc.net/images/Vol11Iss11/111126_Rusgianto_2020_E_R.pdf

Sukuk Amid the Pandemic

Excerpt:

"However, the sukuk market is more concentrated, smaller and less liquid than its conventional counterpart. In addition, the process for issuance remains relatively complex and time-consuming, and involves higher transaction costs.

As such, it is expected that the overall volume of issuance will be muted this year, even if a slight recovery follows on from the steep decline seen in recent months. S&P anticipates that the volume of issuance will reach $10bn in 2020, against the $162bn seen in 2019."

https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/after-covid-19-what-next-islamic-banking

Image from the Internet.

 2016 Paper on Fiscal-Monetary Interactions During 2007 Global Financial Crisis.

http://www.firstrun.eu/files/2016/07/D4.2_Policy_mix_final_ed.pdf

On the Low Interest Rate - Mankiw

Excerpt:

"Several hypotheses might explain the decline in the natural rate of interest:

• As income inequality has risen over the past few decades, resources have shifted from poorer households to richer ones. To the extent that the rich have higher propensities to save, more money flows into capital markets to fund investment.
• The Chinese economy has grown rapidly in recent years, and China has a high saving rate. As this vast pool of savings flows into capital markets, interest rates around the world fall.
• Events like the financial crisis of 2008 and the current pandemic are vivid reminders of how uncertain life is and may have increased people’s aversion to risk. Their increased precautionary saving and especially their greater demand for safe assets drive down interest rates.
• Since the 1970s, average economic growth has slowed, perhaps because of a slower technological advance. A decline in growth reduces the demand for new capital investment, pushing down interest rates.
• Old technologies, such as railroads and auto factories, required large capital investments. New technologies, like those developed in Silicon Valley, may be less capital-intensive. Reduced demand for capital lowers interest rates.
• Some economists, most notably the New York University professor Thomas Philippon, have suggested that the economy is less competitive than it once was. Businesses with increasing market power not only raise their prices but also invest less. Again, reduced demand for capital puts downward pressure on interest rates."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/business/low-interest-rates-puzzle.html

I would propose another one. The rise of Islamic finance, where interest rate is forbidden.

Image from Internet.

Monetary-Fiscal Nexus Post-Pandemic

Monetary-Fiscal Nexus OR Fiscal-Monetary Nexus?

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/658202/IPOL_STU(2020)658202_EN.pdf

Big Data

Source: Internet

Fiscal Multipliers and Growth Cycle

According to the article, fiscal policy in Malaysia is pro-cyclical, especially after the 1998 East Asian financial crisis (1981 to 2010 sample period)

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/3268/WPS5982.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

“Rafiq, Sohrab; Zeufack, Albert. 2012. Fiscal Multipliers over the Growth Cycle : Evidence from Malaysia. Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 5982. World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3268 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”

Low for Long

Lower for Longer. A discussion on global low interest rate environment. Time for Islamic finance to be the game maker?

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/12/14/what-to-do-when-low-for-long-interest-rates-are-lower-and-for-longer/

On the pro and cons of low interest rate.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3417/interest-rates/effect-of-lower-interest-rates/